LAS VEGAS — National Democrats are pouring their hopes into Nevada, betting that turning Gov. Joe Lombardo into a stand-in for President Donald J. Trump will be their ticket back into the governor’s mansion.
There’s just one problem: Lombardo isn’t cooperating with their storyline.
Despite earning Trump’s endorsement, the former sheriff has repeatedly shown he’s no puppet — and that independence is throwing Democrats off their strategy. At times, Lombardo has openly pushed back on the administration, criticizing Medicaid trims, blasting the Interior Department for cutting green-energy projects, and pressing Washington to drop tariffs on lithium — a commodity Nevada desperately wants to dominate.
Democrats, frustrated that he refuses to fit their caricature, have launched an aggressive messaging campaign claiming Lombardo is too timid to challenge Trump — a claim that even many Democrats privately admit is selective spin.
Their latest accusation? That Lombardo “refused to defend Nevada” after the Trump administration halted a major solar initiative. It’s a line they’re repeating everywhere, hoping voters believe the governor is scared to confront the White House.
Democrats See Nevada as Their Best Pick-Up Opportunity
After several off-year victories earlier this month, top Democrats believe Lombardo is the most vulnerable Republican governor in America heading into the midterms. He’ll face either Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford or progressive Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill.
The political backdrop is volatile. Nevada — historically blue-collar and union-heavy — has been drifting right for multiple cycles. Trump cracked open the state in 2024, becoming the first Republican in 20 years to win it. And GOP voter registration now outpaces Democrats — something that was unthinkable just a few years ago.
The state’s economy remains shaky, with tourism reportedly down nearly 8 percent, giving Democrats an opening — or so they hope.
Lombardo’s Team Says the Work Isn’t Finished
Lombardo’s campaign manager, Joe Weaver, said the governor is laser-focused on completing the agenda Nevadans elected him to pursue, including a long-delayed crime bill that finally passed this month.
And in an era dominated by executive overreach, Lombardo has shown surprising restraint: he has vetoed over 160 bills from the Democratic legislature, often referring to himself as the “last line of defense” protecting Nevadans from reckless policymaking.
Democrats’ “Trump Slump” Narrative Isn’t Landing
Sen. Jackie Rosen, fresh off her reelection, insists Nevada is the warning light for Republicans:
“The Trump slump is real,” she said — despite the inconvenient fact that voters credited the state’s declining tourism not to Trump or politics, but to skyrocketing hotel, dining, and entertainment prices.
A Noble Predictive Insights poll in October found:
- 46% blame Nevada’s tourism downturn on rising costs
- Only 14% blame Trump, politics, or federal policies
In other words, the “Trump slump” talking point is a slogan — not a voter belief.
Nevada’s Independents Still Decide Elections
Democrats know the state’s largest bloc is still independent voters, who swing between parties and prize pragmatism. Rosen and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto often overperform national Democrats — a sign that statewide candidates can survive by looking centrist, not partisan.
But one analyst summed up Nevada’s dynamic bluntly:
“Republicans haven’t necessarily become more popular — Trump has.”
Lombardo’s Tightrope With Trump
Lombardo shocked Democrats in 2022 when he defeated Gov. Steve Sisolak, and Trump later praised him for helping flip Nevada red. But Lombardo represents a state that rewards independence. He has disagreed with Trump before — calling him only a “sound” president in 2022, before his office softened the comment.
More recently, Lombardo said Trump’s mass-deportation plan wasn’t his preferred policy, but he nonetheless moved Nevada’s law enforcement closer to federal immigration enforcement — including pushing the Las Vegas police to cooperate more with ICE and eventually activating the National Guard for assistance.
The Latino Vote Could Make or Break the Race
Latinos make up 20% of Nevada’s electorate — and the shift toward Trump has rattled Democrats. Trump’s support among Latinos grew from 27% in 2020 to 35% in 2024. Many Latino voters now prioritize:
- Jobs
- Education
- Cost of living
over immigration politics, which Democrats still tie themselves to.
Nevada GOP strategist Jesus Marquez put it bluntly:
“Democrats have spent decades chasing the wrong priorities for Latinos.”
But Democrats warn the swing isn’t permanent — recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey saw Latinos drift back toward blue candidates, and polls show Ford leading Lombardo among Hispanic voters by 16 points.
Democrats Lean on One Message: Tie Lombardo to Trump
The Emerson College poll shows Lombardo’s approval:
- 34% approve
- 30% neutral
- 36% disapprove
Democrats are seizing on the fact that voters’ biggest concern in July polling was Lombardo’s support for Trump. Their strategy is simple: make every issue about Trump.
Rosen escalated her attacks:
“Since Trump took office, Nevadans are poorer and sicker — and Lombardo is enabling him.”
Ford piled on, calling Lombardo passive and ineffective:
“He’s stood by silently as Trump wrecks our economy.”
The GOP Fires Back: “This Isn’t a Blueprint for Winning Nevada”
Lombardo’s team blasted the attacks as hollow.
“Governor Lombardo has delivered real results — housing, schools, jobs. He doesn’t need lectures about putting families first,” a spokesperson said.
Republicans say Democrats can keep yelling “Trump” all day long — it won’t fix Nevada’s economy, won’t lower hotel prices, and won’t solve the state’s problems.
Nevada GOP strategist Jeremy Hughes said Democrats don’t have a real plan:
“Ford’s always been a culture-war Democrat. I don’t see him pivoting.”
Hill, the progressive candidate, says Democrats must do more than bash Trump — they need solutions. She’s pitching affordable housing proposals and diversifying Nevada’s economy so tourism downturns don’t wreck families.
“Nevadans need something to vote FOR,” Hill said.
Bottom Line
Democrats are gambling everything on the “Trump slump.”
But Nevada’s voters aren’t acting like there is one.
Lombardo isn’t behaving like Trump’s puppet.
Latinos aren’t behaving like a guaranteed blue bloc.
And independents aren’t behaving like they want a Democratic sweep.
Nevada may be the Democrats’ dream pickup —
but Trump’s shadow looms over this race, and it may not be the liability they hope it is.